Updating models and their uncertainties

The same bias works in reverse: existing land is not converted back to, say, woodland because some of the woodland bene¬ts have no market.But this is a result that derives from a perversion of economics “ markets ˜fail™ to allocate resources properly because many of those resources have no price, even though they have potentially substantial economic value.

updating models and their uncertainties-79updating models and their uncertainties-74updating models and their uncertainties-75

His research focuses on the application of geographical information systems, and he has previously published articles in Risk Analysis, Social Science & Medicine, the Journal of Environmental Management, and the International Journal of GIS. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. present situation): 3% discount rate ix Figures 1.1 The total economic value of woodland page 2 1.2 Representing real-world phenomena as raster or vector data layers 6 1.3 Costs and bene¬ts of woodland 8 2.1 Methods for the monetary assessment of non-market and environmental goods 16 2.2 The value formation process 21 3.1 Graph of the ratio of stated to GIS-calculated distance against calculated distance 79 3.2 Comparison of 1 km grid reference with county centroid trip origins 86 4.1 Travel time zones for the Thetford Forest study 93 4.2 Digital road network for Wales and the English Midlands 98 4.3 Population density surface for Wales and the English Midlands 99 4.4 5 km grid points used to generate the predicted woodland visitors surface 101 4.5 Woodland recreation demand in Wales: predicted annual total party visits per site 103 4.6 Woodland recreation demand in north-western Wales: predicted annual total party visits per site 103 4.7 Predicted value of total annual woodland recreation demand per site using two valuation estimates: (a) lower-bound values based on cross-study analysis of CV values; (b) upper-bound values based on ITC study 104 5.1 Forestry Commission, private sector and total annual forestry planting, Great Britain 1946“2000 114 5.2 Price“size curve for conifers in England and Wales 131 5.3 Discount factor curves 133 5.4 Price“size curves for beech in Great Britain 135 5.5 Farmers™ private timber values for Sitka spruce (annualised equivalents of a perpetual series of optimal rotations: r = 3%).

He is currently chair of the Geography of Health Re- search Group of the Royal Geographical Society“Institute of British Geographers. brainard is Senior Research Associate at CSERGE, University of East Anglia. First published in print format 2003 ©®-±  isbn-13 978-0-511-06409-8 e Book (Net Library) ©®-±° 0-511-06409-8 e Book (Net Library)  isbn-10 ©®-± 978-0-521-80956-6 hardback  isbn-13 ©®-±°  isbn-10 0-521-80956-8 hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of µ¬s for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Various yield classes and subsidy types 149 5.6 Farmers™ private timber values for beech (annualised equivalents of a perpetual series of optimal rotations: r = 3%).

Her research background includes GIS, bene¬t transfer, outdoor recreation and environmental equity. B R A I NA R D ©¤§ µ®©© ° Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge  µ, United Kingdom Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York on this title: © Ian J. Various yield classes and subsidy types 150 x List of ¬gures xi 5.7 Social value for Sitka spruce (annualised equivalent of a perpetual series of optimal rotations).

A P P L I E D E N V I RO N M E N TA L ECONOMICS A GIS Approach to Cost-Bene¬t Analysis I A N J . Various yield classes and discount rates 156 5.8 Social value for beech (annualised equivalent of a perpetual series of optimal rotations).

But one of the most powerful is the comparative economic returns to ˜converted™ land relative to the economic returns to ˜natural™ land.

In short, the issue is conservation versus conversion, and this is a con¬‚ict that is invariably resolved in the favour of conversion.

stored carbon, recreation) was ˜monetised™ and added to some of the market values from changed land use (e.g. Determining economic values has become ˜big business™ for environmental economists, and few can match the authors of this volume for ingenuity and ap- plication of the various techniques that have evolved for ¬nding these values.

But ˜valuation™ is expensive, or, at least, that™s how policy-makers like to see it.

Various yield classes and discount rates 156 6.1 Aspect effects for Sitka spruce and beech in differing locations 173 6.2 Predicted timber social NPV sums for perpetually replanted Sitka spruce: 3% discount rate 180 7.1 Total carbon storage curves for unthinned and thinned Sitka spruce: 5% discount rate 190 7.2 Longevity of Sitka spruce timber when put to different uses 192 7.3 Thinning factor for beech 205 7.4 Annual carbon liberation distributions for products and waste expressed as a proportion of total carbon sequestration in wood from one rotation of Sitka spruce 206 7.5 Annual carbon liberation distributions for products and waste expressed as a proportion of total carbon sequestration in wood from one rotation of beech 207 7.6 NPV of net carbon storage in live wood, products and waste from an optimal ¬rst rotation of Sitka spruce: 3% discount rate 213 7.7 NPV of net carbon storage in live wood, products and waste from an optimal ¬rst rotation of beech: 3% discount rate 214 7.8 NPV of net carbon ¬‚ux (live wood, products, waste and soils), Sitka spruce: 3% discount rate 217 8.1 Model of a typical CAP price support system 221 8.2 Sheep stocking intensity in Wales, 1972 to 1997 227 9.1 Location of Forestry Commission sub-compartments of Sitka spruce in Wales (superimposed upon elevation) 283 Tables 1.1 Typical questions that a GIS can be used to answer page 6 2.1 Welfare change measures obtained from expressed preference measures 18 2.2 WTP for preservation of the Norfolk Broads using various elicitation methods 27 2.3 Payment vehicle analysis results 28 2.4 ZTC/ITC consumer surplus estimates for six UK forests 32 3.1 Forest users™ per person per visit recreation values from ZTC studies 45 3.2 Forest users™ per person per visit recreation values from CV studies 46 3.3 Woodland recreation values from a cross-study analysis of CV estimates 51 3.4 Summary WTP responses for the Thetford 1 CV study 53 3.5 Thetford 1 TC study: consumer surplus estimates for three functional forms 56 3.6 Summary WTP results: per annum (WTPpa) and per visit (WTPfee) formats 58 3.7 Stepwise regression of ln WTPpa on signi¬cant predictors 60 3.8 Farm characteristics and farmers™ willingness to accept compensation for transferring from present output to woodland 62 3.9 Mean WTP (tax) per annum and 95 per cent con¬dence intervals for each subsample (including payment principle refusals as zeros) 68 3.10 Mean WTP (fee) per visit and 95 per cent con¬dence intervals for each subsample (including payment principle refusals as zeros) 69 3.11 Average road speed estimates 77 3.12 Sensitivity analysis: ML models (best-¬tting model shown in italics) 82 3.13 Sensitivity analysis: OLS models (best-¬tting model shown in italics) 84 3.14 Sensitivity analysis: effects of varying outset origin on TC bene¬t estimates 87 3.15 Valuing recreational visits to woodland: a synthesis of studies 88 4.1 Observed and predicted visitor rates 94 4.2 Of¬cial recreational visit numbers, predictions of arrivals and consumer surplus estimates for twenty-seven English woodlands 106 xii List of tables xiii 5.1 Forestry Commission holdings: Great Britain 1978“2000 (™000 ha) 116 5.2 High forest by general species: Forestry Commission and private woodland in Great Britain 1947“2000 (™000 ha) 121 5.3 Woodland Grant Scheme payments (£/ha) 125 5.4 Woodland Management Grants 125 5.5 Payments under the Farm Woodland Premium Scheme (£/ha per annum) 127 5.6 Optimal felling age for various discount rates: Sitka spruce, YC6“24 134 5.7 Optimal felling age for various discount rates: beech, YC4“10 136 5.8 Agricultural nominal rate of return (Ro R) on tenants™ capital: Wales 1987/88“1991/92 140 5.9 Farmers™ private timber values for high-output Sitka spruce and beech across various discount rates (annualised equivalents of a perpetual series of optimal rotations) 150 6.1 Variables obtained from the SCDB 164 6.2 Variables obtained from Land IS 166 6.3 Comparing actual with predicted YC for Sitka spruce (cell contents are counts) 171 6.4 Comparing actual with predicted YC for beech (cell contents are counts) 173 6.5 Predicted Sitka spruce YC under three scenarios 176 6.6 Predicted beech YC under two scenarios 177 6.7 NPV sums for perpetually replanted Sitka spruce timber across various discount rates 181 6.8 Annuity values for perpetually replanted Sitka spruce timber across various discount rates 182 6.9 NPV sums for perpetually replanted beech timber across various discount rates 182 6.10 Annuity values for perpetually replanted beech timber across various discount rates 183 7.1 The social costs of CO2 emissions ($/t C): comparison across studies 188 7.2 Softwood and hardwood end uses for UK domestic production 1991/92 193 7.3 Post-afforestation changes in equilibrium soil carbon storage levels for various soils previously under grass (t C/ha): upland and lowland sites 196 7.4 Date of ¬rst thinning (TD1) for Sitka spruce yield models (r = 0.05 throughout) 201 7.5 Thinning factor for Sitka spruce (TF SS,t ): YC12 202 7.6 Date of ¬rst thinning (TD1) for beech yield models (r = 0.05 throughout) 204 7.7 NPV of net carbon ¬‚ux (sequestration in live wood and liberation from products and waste) for an optimal rotation of Sitka spruce: various yield classes and discount rates (£, 1990) 210 7.8 NPV of net carbon ¬‚ux (sequestration in live wood and liberation from products and waste) for an optimal rotation of beech: various yield classes and discount rates (£, 1990) 212 xiv List of tables 7.9 NPV of carbon in live wood, waste and products from an optimal rotation of Sitka spruce and beech: linear predictive equations with yield class as the single explanatory variable: various discount rates 212 7.10 NPV of Sitka spruce and beech carbon ¬‚ux for live wood, waste and products: various discount rates (r) 215 7.11 NPV perpetuity sums for soil carbon ¬‚ux: all tree species (£/ha) 216 7.12 Number of 1 km land cells at differing levels of NPV for net carbon ¬‚ux (live wood, waste, products and soils): Sitka spruce, various discount rates (r) 216 8.1 Change in Welsh agriculture 1990 to 2000 226 8.2 FBSW annual farm account data: example of a typical farm record 232 8.3 Agroclimatic variables obtained from Land IS 234 8.4 Farm cluster characteristics: average income and mean percentage of total revenue from speci¬ed activities in each cluster of farms 236 8.5 Best-¬tting stage 1 models of farm surplus/ha on sheep (cluster 1) and milk (cluster 2) farms 240 8.6 Best-¬tting stage 2 models for sheep farms 242 8.7 Best-¬tting stage 2 models for milk farms 244 8.8 Predicted farm surplus values for sheep and milk farms 247 8.9 Predicted farm-gate income and shadow values for sheep and milk farms 248 9.1 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining sheep farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to conifer (Sitka spruce) woodland: 6% discount rate 254 9.2 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining milk farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to conifer (Sitka spruce) woodland: 6% discount rate 260 9.3 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining sheep farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to broadleaf (beech) woodland: 6% discount rate 264 9.4 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining milk farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to broadleaf (beech) woodland: 6% discount rate 268 9.5 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining sheep farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to conifer (Sitka spruce) woodland: 3% discount rate 270 9.6 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining milk farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to conifer (Sitka spruce) woodland: 3% discount rate 274 9.7 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining sheep farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to broadleaf (beech) woodland: 3% discount rate 276 9.8 Distribution of the net bene¬ts of retaining milk farming in Wales as opposed to conversion to broadleaf (beech) woodland: 3% discount rate 278 Foreword Much of environmental change is driven by land use change.

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